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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • I hope your optimism is vidicated, but…

    This specific race was for a deep-blue seat, prior to this race the Republican candidate had at best gotten 18%, and this time the republican got 38%, the most any republican has ever gotten for that state seat. Comparing Trump vote to state senate run seems to be apples and oranges for this district.

    EVERY special election has gone against Republicans badly.

    Well, except for the fact that not a single seat has been flipped. I suppose I can grant that the Republicans slipped 10-15 points in these races compared to the election where Trump was running, but of the three chances to actually flip a republican seat, none did anything.

    On the senate, looking at the seats up, I could see maybe Georgia, NC, and Maine as potentially flippable, very remote chance of Texas… So 2-3 gains for the democrats at most. I don’t think Senate is realistically in play, they need to flip 4 red seats to get even a simple majority, still well short of a filibuster proof majority and impossibly short of a veto-proof/remove president from office majority.

    his Insurrection and his Stolen Classified Documents

    While not ‘dead’ dead, the supreme court basically gave him a 100% pass on the insurrection, they basically declared that a president cannot be held criminally liable for anything while in office. The classified documents maybe but the supreme court can easily intervene and say the records are forever under the president’s jurisdiction to classify as he pleases.



  • It’s kind of ugly and not exactly confidence inspiring, since everything they are putting out there the potential customers know how to make the same thing.

    I saw an AI ad where they made three AI generated ‘testimonials’. So this told me that not only could they fail to find even three actual customers to just say the words they wanted, they couldn’t even dig up three actors or even three random employees to say the words. How pathetic must your offering be if you can’t get even a handful of real humans to at least lie for it?





  • Ok, but you are saying ‘Kilroy was here’ was an ‘early’ meme dating back to the 1940s. By the ‘thing described by a term can predate the term’ logically, memes have always been a thing and you won’t be able to cite an ‘early’ meme credibly.

    The guy was agreeing that 'sure, that was a meme, but so too were many many things throughout history, basically life is a constant barrage of ‘memes’ in that sense.






  • This doesn’t seem to be much of a narrative that the post wants it to be…

    One, this is a state seat, nothing to do with the federal government.

    Second, it’s a seat that has been thoroughly blue looks like. GOP hadn’t even bothered to run a candidate in over a decade, and then they only got 19% of the vote. The GOP candidate showed 38% this time around, which is actually stronger performance than they had before.

    Per an article “have historically supported Democrats at the state and local level, but have shifted toward Republicans in federal elections”, this is a continuation. If anything, concerning that this is the strongest GOP result for that seat, even though they still lost…

    In terms of special elections, the three that are scheduled are pretty much the only ones we are going to see, and all signs point to 2 going GOP and 1 going democrat, resulting in a 220:215 in favor of republicans. Even if they flipped the two GOP seats then it’s 218:217. More resignations/deaths could shift things more, but no more special elections since it’s so close to the general election now.

    Even if, hypothetically, 10 republicans just up and resigned and the vacancies gave the democrats the majority… then what? They do another toothless impeachment? They shake their head disapprovingly at Trump deploying ICE to strategic polling places?

    You’d need to see 2/3rds of the senate be willing to go against Trump before anything could realistically stop the worst of the Trump presidency.





  • In terms of why some of the “goto” brands aren’t the best, it’s generally because they were the best, got popular on merit, and then business folk come along to suck the life out of it, spending brand goodwill while gouging customers and cutting costs.

    Some food product recipe changes to cheap, more shelf stable crap for mass production and easy logistics. Some device gets locked into a paid subscription. All the helpful service people get fired and replaced with chat bots and offshored/outsourced staff. Metal components replaced with cheap plastic that degrades. Shipping times increased so they can make everything an ocean away and give the boat time to travel. Also run big marketing pushes so it’s really hard to find the quality offerings.

    There’s just so many ways you can have big margins on big revenue by screwing customers while going they haven’t noticed the decline in quality. Very hard for investor class to leave good product alone.




  • I am not sure. They have other businesses but not sure those other businesses are able to sustain the obligations that nVidia has committed to in this round. They are juggling more money than their pre-AI boom market cap by a wide margin, so if the bubble pops, unclear how big a bag nVidia will be left holding and if the rest of their business can survive it. Guess they might go bankrupt and come out of it eventually to continue business as usual after having financial obligations wiped away…

    Also, they have somewhat tarnished their reputation with going all in on the dataenter equipment to, seemingly here, abandoning the consumer market to make more capacity for the datacenters. So if AMD ever had an opportunity to maybe cash in, well, here it might be… Except they also dream of being a big datacenter player, but weaker demand may leave them with leftover capacity…